In our habitual mode of thinking, we tend to accept forward-looking models and repeatable patterns that assume normal bell curve distributions of simple inertia. The domains of the Cynefin framework and who to orient oneself within them. David Snowden‘s Cynefin framework helps one acquire some orientation in what kind of environment one is operating and how to approach decision-making under different levels of uncertainty.įor example, simple and following established best practice, complicated and requiring domain expertise, complex and heuristic, chaotic requiring novel practice.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” cover.Ī black swan, in other words, represents unknown unknowns (a grey swan is referred to known unknown). It becomes explainable only after the fact (prospectively unpredictable, retrospectively predictable).It carries an extreme, disproportionate impact (events of low predictability and high consequence).Nothing that has happened before (no historical information) can point to the possibility of it taking place Or more precisely, for an event to qualify as a black swan it must fulfill the following criteria: Additionally, it is only rationalized as predictable in hindsight after the fact. The term black swan itself has entered the common financial vernacular and is used to describe an outlier event entirely outside of the realm of predictable expectations, which has a disproportionate impact on future developments.
As such, it’s more of a book on how NOT to invest rather than how to invest. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s now popular “ The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable “ is a book about epistemology, probability, risk, and psychological biases. Listen to ‘The Black Swan’ for FREE with Audible Trial HERE.
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